Paolo Gargini—Intel Fellow, Technology and Manufacturing Group and Director of Technology Strategy for Intel—spoke on May 3 at the Semico Summit 2011.  He highlighted the time gap between when an idea is formed, to when the science, technology and engineering are able to make that idea a reality.  The incubation time for an idea to become real has shortened from several hundred years for satellites, to 12-15 years now for many ideas.

The driving technology in the semiconductor industry to date has been the ability to scale CMOS transistors.  The Nanoelectronics Research Initiative (NRI) is a consortium begun by Semiconductor Industry Association member companies to run a university-based research program to determine what will come next after the limits of CMOS scaling have been reached.  The National Institue of Standards and Technology (NIST) joined as a full participant in 2007.  NRI’s goal is to have a demonstrable solution by 2020.  The solution is supposed to show benefits in power, performance, density and/or cost in order to continue the cost and performance gains from traditional scaling.  There are four main branches of the NRI-NIST program:  Western Institute of Nanoelectronics (WIN) headed by UCLA, the Institute for Nanoelectronics Discovery and Exploration (INDEX) headed by SUNY-Albany, the SouthWest Academy for Nanoelectronics (SWAN) headed by UT-Austin, and the Midwest Institute for Nanoelectronics Discovery (MIND).

Science, technology and engineering companies have been working together to invent the next new product that we all can’t live without.  The semiconductor industry has relied on Moore’s Law to set a sustainable pace for the past 40 years.  As chips have integrated more functions, become more dense with transistors, and become available in large quantities, multiple end-product waves have been able to occur.  New technologies are being developed by groups such as NRI which promise to continue the pace of new chip introductions we have experienced so far.  Problems occur when the chips can’t meet the products’ required functionality, but that’s when other similar products can be repurposed in order to drive the eventual success of the end product.

Adrienne Downey,

Director of Technology Research

The topic of Dean’s presentation was innovation, and how the United States is lagging behind in terms of educating and inspiring our youth to become innovators.  We take invention for granted because we have so much technology around us.  However, in developing countries, they are ready to take risks at much lower investment levels.

In the United States, we have the lowest percentage of kids going into science and technology in the world.  We also have the highest percentage of kids dropping out of high school in the world.  “Innovation should be thought of as a gift from one generation to the next,” Kamen said.

Dean believes we have a culture problem, where it is the tech industry, not lawyers and politicians, that needs to support a long-term serious commitment to science and technology.

Dean called those in attendance to action, saying that we need to get involved in fostering enthusiasm in science and technology in children.  Through First, Dean makes science and engineering more fun.  A Brandeis University study showed that First program alumni are 50% more likely to go to college than their peers, and twice as likely to major in science and engineering.  To learn more about how you can get involved, go to www.usfirst.org.

Adrienne Downey,

Director of Technology Research

Let’s focus on:

• The fact that 2011 will continue the growth started in 2010, rather than shrinking as in 2009.
• The fact that component shortages are still impacting the cell phone industry, during a quarter that is seasonally slow.
• Broadcom just raised its guidance for revenue in the fourth quarter, based on the strength of the mobile and wireless markets.
• The possibility of stronger NAND ASPs in the wake of Toshiba’s NAND fab power outage last week.
• The first half of the year is seasonally weak, and not necessarily indicative of a downturn.

On the consumer side 3DTV is gaining traction, other tablet computers are competing against the iPad, automotive electronics are on the rise, and a smaller iPad could possibly be introduced next year.  This will all help electronics sales continue to shine in 2010.  And of course, CES will bring a raft of new innovations to spark consumer sales in the coming year.

Source: Semico Research Corp.

The industry news supports what our Inflection Point Indicator (IPI) has been showing all year.  It continues to be an accurate forecasting tool to know far in advance when the industry will go up or down.  If you’d like to subscribe to our IPI to stay ahead of the news in 2011, contact Sam Caldwell at samc@semico.com or 602-214-9697.

Stay tuned for a full preview on what 2011 will bring with commentary from all our analysts!

However, for us to demo Kinect, he pulled up the bowling game (what was odd is that he had to turn the system off and then back on before doing so).  My 6-year-old was first, and easily picked up the directions on how to play (stand in a certain spot, raise your right arm straight out to “pick up” the ball, then throw like you normally would).  We all got a turn, and the Kinect seamlessly transferred from one of us to the other, even though there was three feet difference in height from the shortest to the tallest of us. 

The onscreen guides were very intuitive — they help you figure out where to stand and how to aim the ball to pick up a spare.  Kinect got a little confused when more than one person was standing in the “game play” area, so we had to make sure to stand off to one side when not playing. 

Reaction from my kids – “Awesome!  That was so much fun!”  My husband and I both enjoyed it very much, I liked it more than I thought I would.  I think Microsoft has a winner on its hands, and I think controller-less gaming is going to be the new mass-market “hit” like the Wii has been.  People that don’t already have the Xbox will buy it just to get Kinect.  I think once the technology improves and becomes more seamless and intuitive, much of gaming will be controller-less.  The biggest application is sports and fitness-related games, as it is a hassle to deal with a controller when you’re trying to move around and get a workout. 

If Microsoft can get its marketing in gear, with demos at malls and Best Buys around the country, they will have a very happy holidays, indeed.

Mr. Cormier talked about “demand smoothing” ideas such as time-of-use pricing to help reduce electricity demand at peak hours.  This will reduce energy prices and cut infrastructure spending, since utilities must build to support the highest peak demand.  Energy measurement and control will exist at the device level in the form of smart meters and thermostats, and at the building level with energy efficient lighting and automated local and remote control of major equipment.  Energy savings from more efficient industrial and commercial lighting represents another huge opportunity.  Potential smart appliances in the Smart Home include thermostats, clothes washers and dryers, refrigerators, microwave ovens, stoves, lighting, heaters, air conditioners, electric vehicles, and pool pumps.  Vampire power repesents up to 10% of the total power used in the home, and time-of-use power billing from the utility will drive interest in smart plugs and power strips.  Mr. Cormier believes that energy measurement ICs will become ubiquitous.

While the publishing industry has already made great strides in making content available, I believe there is more work to be done. For example, the DRM challenges related to the Kindle are off-putting to a lot of people, including me. It’s why I ended up with a Sony; I wanted to be able to download books from the public library rather than buying them. I will certainly end up buying some books that I know I will read multiple times, but the vast majority of books I would rather borrow than buy. Now that other models with wireless connections are becoming available, the Kindle loses some of its cachet. I believe that the book publishing world is headed in the same direction music has gone: switching to digital distribution, lower and standardized prices, and DRM-free content.

A happy side effect of the growth of e-readers is more people reading for enjoyment and rediscovering the classics, most of which are now available for free, thanks to Project Gutenberg.

Semico just published a study on e-readers; if you’re interested in this market you should check it out: E-readers: Reader Me This, Reader Me That.