Has this hurt Apple iPad2 sales in 4Q 2011? There are some reports that Kindle Fire took away 1 to 2 million units of potential sales from Apple. However, Semico views this as just speculation at this point. There have been no official statements from Apple on results of this most recent quarter. The company had not made any definitive statements on sales projections for Apple iPAD2 for the quarter. In light of the fact that the tablet PC market is still relatively new and we experienced various supply chain disruptions due to earthquakes and floods, one could not expect otherwise.

Semico is currently estimating Apple iPad2 shipments to be about 15 million units in 4Q 2011. This would result in Apple shipping just over 40 million iPads in 2011. Semico projects that total tablet PCs will ship 60 million units in 2011. Thus, Apple will hold about 67% market share in 2011. In 2010 Apple held 87% share, but there was hardly any competition at the time. If Kindle Fire actual shipments are in the mid-range of the estimate (about 4.5 million) then Amazon will have carved out 7.5% market share in less than 2 months.

At the beginning of 2011, Semico noted there were about a hundred tablet PC models entering the market. We also expected to see a major shake out during the year with only a handful of competitors emerging from this huge pack. Kindle Fire was a late entry but made the biggest splash of all the iPad contenders.

Did Kindle Fire cannibalize iPad? There may have been some but Semico does not believe it was to the extent that has been speculated by others. The lowest priced iPad2 is $499 while the kindle Fire is $200. Semico believes that many of the Kindle Fire customers may not have considered iPad2 to begin with, due to the price. Reviews indicate that the iPad2 has more capabilities than the Fire – well what do you expect given the price difference?

What will 2012 bring? Since the shakeout of 2011, there will be new products but vendors will have to learn from those that fell by the wayside. Apple and Amazon offer a lot of apps and content. Price is a key factor. It has been rumored that Apple may come out with a smaller size iPad and reach a lower price point. Google will be coming out with a tablet in 2012. Will it go after Amazon? If vendors are looking to get into the corporate world security issues need to be addressed. Semico expects to see continued strong sales of tablet PCs in general with a growth rate of over 40%.

Tony Massimini
Chief Technology Officer
Semico Research Corp.
tonym@semico.com
602-997-0337 X3

Recently there have been two major announcements in the MEMS (microelectromechanical system) oscillator market. Market leader SiTime breaks into high-precision OCXO timing with Stratum 3 compliant solutions; and Integrated Device Technology Inc. (IDT) jumps into the MEMS oscillator market with a piezoelectric MEMS resonator.

SiTime has introduced the SiT5301 and SiT5302, which address the highest-performance applications for timing devices. SiTime is targeting replacement of OCXO and TCXO quartz oscillators for the telecom and networking infrastructure market. The Stratum 3 oscillators have very stringent standards for frequency stability over temperature, 24-hour holdover, and 20-year stability. SiTime’s SiT530x family offers shock resistance 10 times better than quartz and 7 times better on vibration.

However, what is very notable is a reliability/MTBF rating of 500 million hours. This is 25 times higher than quartz. This is a key advantage for SiTime’s MEMS oscillator, since the target applications have long lifecycles, and customers want to reduce service calls. Another key feature is that power consumption is less than 75 mW, compared to quartz OCXO at more than 1 Watt.

SiTime will have samples in December 2011, with production in the first half of 2012.

IDT is a supplier of timing circuits, but this is its first entry into the MEMS area. The pMEMS resonator has been in development since 2007. The company claims it is the smallest hermetically sealed wafer level package (WLP) resonator. IDT also states that it is offering the first commercially available oscillators incorporating piezoelectric MEMS resonators.

IDT has demonstrated the long-term frequency stability of its pMEMS resonator. The company is also touting the extremely small size and targeting consumer, communications, and cloud computing applications. This is a technology announcement; product announcements are expected over the next few months, with full production in 2012. Currently IDT is sampling its pMEMS oscillator evaluation boards to qualified customers.

Semico Spin

The total oscillator market is about $3 billion, but MEMS has a very small penetration. For the most part, MEMS oscillator vendors have taken an opportunistic strategy by supplying their products in standard quartz packages, which allows them to be an easy drop-in replacement. The latest offerings from SiTime and IDT offer many advantages over quartz. MEMS oscillators have lower cost, lower power consumption, configurable frequency, and improved reliability and stability.

It has not been easy getting designers in established products to consider an alternative to quartz, because quartz has been around a long time. However, in addition to the standard quartz packages, both SiTime and IDT are taking advantage of the small size of MEMS and offering new innovative packages that are extremely small. This will open up opportunities for MEMS oscillators in new applications. IDT is a supplier of traditional timing circuits, including crystal oscillators. This could give the company sales opportunities with existing customers.

Semico Research presented on the panel featuring market analysts.  The consensus on the panel and by many in the audience is that MEMS is a high growth market being driven by high volume applications in consumer electronics, most notably smart phones.  Semico brought a fresh new perspective.  MEMS are becoming more main stream.  The market dynamics for MEMS will more closely resemble the rest of the semiconductor market.  The high volume consumer market is a commodity market.  Therefore, the MEMS market needs to develop a more cohesive ecosystem.  This would allow companies to leverage standard processes and tools for volume production.  This will reduce costs and speed up time to market.

On other panels the issues of the ecosystem and the challenges of improving time to market were addressed.  There were differences of opinion.  On the panel for MEMS Foundry Models there were opposing views on reusing CMOS fabs being able to lower costs for IDMs and large IC foundries.  One issue that was put forward was that pure-play foundries compete via engineering know how and an “ecosystem” approach.

Among some of the topics that were raised during audience discussion is whether or not more intelligence should be integrated into the MEMS controller.  Increasing integration of MEMS sensors, such as various motion sensors, there will be more data.  Some attendees favored delivering the data to the host processor and embed the algorithms in that device.  Others were calling for the IP to be embedded in more advanced MEMS controllers.

The highlight of the MEMS Congress was the technology showcase.  There were seven companies demonstrating exciting new applications using existing MEMS devices.  The winner was Recon Instruments with ski goggles that have a heads up display that provide the user with various data.  This can also be applied to other HUD’s for other sports.

The MEMS Executive Congress featured lively and informative discussions.  These occurred during the panel sessions, as well as in the hall and over dinner.  The MEMS market has yet to mature, many issues are still in a state of flux.  This is a gathering of individuals who are working energetically on bringing exciting new technology to the masses.  The exchange of ideas and opinions is vital for the development of the MEMS market.

Tony Massimini

Chief Technology Officer

tonym@semico.com

602-997-0337 X3

For those unfamiliar with ComicCon (www.comic-con.org) it is the largest convention for comic books in the world.  However, it covers a great deal more.  Science fiction and fantasy TV and movies are heavily represented.  These are usually tied in with comics and animation.  There is also a strong tie in with video games.  For the fourth straight year ComicCon was sold out for all four days with attendance of 125,000 each day.  It is the largest convention throughout the year for the city of San Diego.

The show began 43 years ago as a small convention for Sci-Fi fans focused on comics and literature.  It has ballooned into a huge media event attracting TV and movie producers to promote their work.  These productions usually have a tie in with comics and Sci-Fi, but Comic-Con has expanded to pull in other pop culture media.

Content is King!  Without enough material there is little incentive to buy the hardware.  What consumers want to see and how they want to interact with it drives the development of the electronics.  It is not surprising that many attendees are technically savvy early adopters.

ComicCon 2011

At ComicCon one sees the rich source material for new entertainment.  This is very important for the video game market.  The fans of the sci-fi/comic genre want cutting edge graphics and special effects.  They represent a key segment of the video game market.  ComicCon is a venue for previewing many new upcoming games for the holiday season.

Many new games were being demoed for all of the video game consoles, the handheld games and PC platform.  These have ever-increasing levels of graphics, explosions and interaction.  There were several panels for attendees to listen to and ask questions of the game developers.  The gaming has outgrown the convention center.  While there were demos in the exhibit hall, many companies had larger showcases offsite.  Nintendo and Microsoft used these venues to show off the latest games for Wii and Kinect.  These drew large crowds.  However, it was rather perplexing to find that Sony had no alternate venue outside the convention center.  In fact the only games being demoed for Sony were for Playstation 3.  There were no demos for the Playstation 3 Move.  This is the motion sensing technology that Sony was showing off at last year’s ComicCon.  This does not look promising considering the audience at ComicCon wants to see what will be available during the holiday season.

Sony had a demo for the upcoming video on demand service on the Playstation 3.

The PC gaming area was a bit smaller than prior years.  There were no contests or other type of participatory activity as in the past.  The real action was off-site.

AMD Makes a Big Splash at ComicCon 2011

This year AMD made its presence known at ComicCon.  It was the sponsor for the annual Eisner Awards, the “Oscars” of the comics industry.  More importantly, AMD had a large demo area for PC gaming at the Omni Hotel.  In addition, across the street at a local pub more demos were available.  AMD was drawing numerous attendees to these locations.  An AMD marketing manager said to me that he was pleasantly surprised not only at the number of people visiting but also how many were technically savvy and were interested in the platform details.

AMD was showing off a wide variety of systems.  One impressive platform was a gaming desktop featuring the upcoming FX processor (Bulldozer series) with 8 cores on one chip manufactured on 32nm.  It had an advanced ATI graphics card that is currently available and driving three panels as a single monitor for a panoramic effect.  The most amazing part is that the box (excluding monitors) retails between $699 and $999.  The FX processors will be available later this summer.

The following video shows the line-up of netbooks

AMD also showed off the current family of Phenom II and Radeon GPUs for desktops.  These continue to improve and offer impressive performance at competitive prices.  Of particular note were the notebooks with the recent A-series of APUs.  This is the Fusion family which integrates the CPU and GPU functions.  An ATI graphics card is included.  AMD’s technology allows the two graphics engines to work together resulting in greatly improved performance.  In most other PCs an external GPU will just disable the integrated GPU.  This is also the first time that I have seen gaming notebooks at ComicCon.  There is now enough horsepower for notebooks to be serious gaming machines.  Also on display was a tablet PC design based on the Brazos platform.  This features the C-series and E-series APUs (codenamed Ontario).  The interesting feature of this tablet PC is that it attaches to a keyboard docking station.

Interview with AMD’s Marketing Manager:

Another interview with AMD:

3D TV

Like last year, there were a few 3D gaming demos, but nothing for 3D TV.  Sony is a major exhibitor at ComicCon and can tap into its broad product spectrum from movies and TV content to consumer electronics.  It appears there is little marketing effort for 3D TV.  There is not enough content yet.  I do not expect this holiday season will be a big push for 3D TV.

Future for Comics

How will comics fare in this changing world?  This industry is still producing print content even while presenting futuristic themes.  One panel featuring long-time comic book writers admitted that they will be going digital.  A vision of this future was on display at the DC Comics booth.  The company was showing off their comics on iPads.

ComicCon International is a whirlwind of activity.  It can be an overwhelming flood of visual and audio stimuli.  One sees Harry Potter reading a Kindle, a Star Wars storm trooper checking the schedule on his iPhone and attendees tweeting or posting to Facebook so they can win a prize.  This is an event that I find provides insight into how our popular activities and electronics become intertwined.

The following video shows the scope of the gaming floor, including an appearance from Felicia Day.

Tony Massimini, Chief of Technology

tonym@semico.com

TI part number TMP006 is a MEMS infrared digital temperature sensor in a 1.6-mm x 1.6-mm package; approximately 1/16” x 1/16.  That is certainly remarkable!

In this small package, the TMP006 integrates an on-chip MEMS thermopile sensor, signal conditioning, a 16-bit ADC (analog-to-digital-converter), a local temperature sensor, and voltage references.  This provides a complete digital solution for contactless temperature measurement.  The TMP006 uses only 240 uA quiescent current and 1 uA in shutdown mode.  It supports a temperature range of -40 degrees to +125 degrees C (Celsius) with an accuracy of +/- 0.5 degree C (typical) on the local sensor and accuracy of +/- 1 degrees C (typical) for the passive IR sensor.   It includes I2C/SMBus digital interface.

Monitoring case temperature is not the only application for the TMP006.  It could also be used in a cell phone or other handheld device to measure the temperature of something outside the cell phone:  something cooking on a grill, a hot pan just out of the oven or any other temperature a person might want to know.  In addition, Semico believes that there are hundreds if not thousands of other potential applications in industrial or medical applications.  This is a temperature sensor that designers will find a way to use, often in unexpected ways.

The sales price for this part in 1,000 piece quantities will be $1.50.  This suggests that the price will be much lower for volume purchases.  An evaluation module is available for for $50; and an IBIS model to verify board signal integrity requirements is also available, along with full source code for calculating object temperature and applications notes.

This part is the kind of break-through part the semiconductor industry introduces from to time.  It is much smaller and less expensive than anyone could have imagined a remote temperature sensor could be.  At the same time, it has better performance that anyone could have expected in such a small package.  The fact that there are no specific applications for such a device in consumer applications is because until now a cost effective solution with low power consumption and small size was not available.  This is a new feature that system developers can exploit.  Semico believes that it will find numerous applications.

Tony Massimini, CTO

Oil wells are no longer only drilled straight down.  They are often drilled at a slant to reach an oil field from an accessible location.  They are also often threaded around obstacles such as water or hard rock.  This requires an extremely accurate measurement of the tilt and direction of the drill bit.  The Analog Devices inertial sensor provides that measurement.  This part also has an application when the well is completed, when it can be used to monitor vibration from the down-hole pump to provide an early warning of a potential failure of the pumping apparatus.

The ADXL206 inertial sensor is a dual axis ±5g dual-axis accelerometer, which can operate from -40^○C to +175^○C.  It has diminishing performance above 175^○C, but is 100% recoverable.  Oil well drillers will calibrate the output of the part and use it at temperatures above 175^○C, a usual practice in the industry.  It has a long life, a guaranteed minimum 1000 hours at 175^○C.  It has high sensitivity and accuracy.

The ADXL206 is packaged in a 13mm X 8mm X 2 mm ceramic, dual in-line package, a tiny but rugged package, which replaces packages that can be up to the size of a hockey puck.  This part will sell at well under $1,000 in 1,000 piece quantities.  It will replace inertial sensors that sell for thousands of dollars.

Although the ADXL206 was designed for down-hole applications, Semico believes it is sure to find a home in other applications that require operation in severe environments.  Although none of these have materialized yet, that there may be applications in steel mills, blast furnaces, high temperature test ovens or other high temperature locations.  The ADXL206 has a unique set of characteristics.  There are, no doubt, design engineers who have set of requirements that have defied solution for years, requirements that match the specifications of Analog Devices part ADXL206.  They will be overjoyed to see this part.

Tony Massimini
Chief Technical Officer

It’s also no surprise that smartphone feature sets change over time.  What constituted a smartphone in 2003 is not at all the same as in 2011.  With each generation cell phones are becoming more feature rich, especially smartphones.

MEMS and sensors are important components that enable many of the new features on smartphones.  MEMS devices offer not only additional functionality but also smaller size and lower power consumption.  This makes MEMS very attractive to the smartphone market.  But what truly paves the way for MEMS in cell phones?    Is it just the new feature or new features at the right price point?

Will the cell phone market force MEMS devices to reduce margins or will manufacturers find ways to produce these chips more efficiently?

Prices for MEMS will erode as volumes increase.  CMOS image sensors is a perfect example of a feature that no one really needed but is on almost every phone because it was added at very little cost.  The CMOS image sensor share will decline but will still account for approximately one-third of this revenue in 2015.  Is MEMS headed down the same path?  Will margins erode?

In its most recent study, Semico has identified a dozen functions in a smartphone that either have a MEMS solution, or could potentially migrate to MEMS.  A significant trend this study points out is the development of the Inertial Motion Unit (IMU).  This incorporates several functions – accelerometer, gyroscope and digital compass.  The stand alone solutions are migrating to one package.  This can be a multi-die solution or monolithic.

MEMS and sensors for smartphones is a highly fragmented market with about 40 chip vendors involved in different areas.  MEMS and sensors functions in smartphones include CMOS image sensor, gyroscopes, accelerometers, magnetic field sensors (digital compass), autofocus actuators, pressure sensors (barometric sensors), micro mirrors, silicon microphones, oscillators and timing circuits, temperature sensors, micro-speakers, and RF MEMS – including FBAR, SAW, varactors, etc.

Lots of parts, lots of players…for now.

Tony Massimini, Chief Technology Officer

Mr. Moorthy showed how several applications that have evolved from very simple solutions to solutions that utilize sensors and intelligence.  This has enabled products that are adaptable, have more security, simplified user experience, improved energy efficiency and more.  Among these are developments in automotive, lighting, thermostats and appliances.  There are new applications for microcontrollers providing support management in personal computing, data centers, handsets, asset tracking & management and personal medical equipment.  Embedded computing is found throughout various applications within the smart power grid.

Mr. Moorthy cited several innovation enablers.

• More integrated features, lower cost
• Higher performance, lower power
• Smaller size
• Wired and Wireless connectivity
• High quality, low cost graphics
• Touch – buttons, sliders, screens
• Energy Efficiency building blocks

Chip vendors need to invest in customer support.  There are more software engineers than hardware engineers involved in the development of MCUs.  A chip vendor cannot just produce silicon, it must also help system designers with tools and expertise.  Today’s applications are just the tip of the iceberg, according to Mr. Moorthy.  There are many more innovations yet to come.

Tony Massimini

Chief of Technology

tonym@semico.com

Mr. Krysiak pointed out the demographic changes that are occurring.  There is increasing world population with most of this growth in non-Western countries.  By 2050 there will be nearly 10 billion people, an increase of 3 billion over today.  In addition we have an aging population.  This puts pressure on many resources.

The theme of his presentation, “doing well by doing good,” presents the internet and connectivity as key elements in addressing these issues.  He noted that the internet and connectivity have become the plumbing of our world and industry.  There are a growing number of online users, many in China.

We will depend more on the internet and connectivity for increases in productivity and security.  Human productivity will depend more on mobility and wireless.  Banking will be transformed by this, but then security becomes more important.  This will lead to growth in brand authentication, protection and trusted platform security.

With an aging population countries need to deal with healthcare management.  Mr. Krysiak pointed out that in developed countries 12-18% of GDP is for healthcare spending.  Much of this is for chronic disease management, such as diabetes.  Remote monitoring and wellness are the next big explosion of content.  Connectivity will play a major role in this.  Semiconductor technology, including MEMS, offers more affordable solutions, with greater reliability and precision.

The Smart Grid applies IT and networking expertise to deliver energy efficiently.  This includes smart meters, photovoltaics, electric vehicles and Home Area Networks (HAN) working together for energy efficiency by balancing supply and demand.  Network security plays an important role.

The semiconductor industry offers the intelligent control and high performance analog technology to make all of this happen.

Tony Massimini

Chief of Technology

tonym@semico.com

Of course, I’m not really using the Akustica AKU230, but I could be. It is used primarily in notebook computers, just like the one I’m typing on.

The AKU230 is manufactured using conventional CMOS processes. The microphone membrane is a metal/dielectric layer, manufactured just like every other metal/dielectric layer in a CMOS process. The ADC circuitry is located around the membrane and is fabricated at the same time as the membrane during the same conventional CMOS processes. This approach offers savings in silicon area compared to a MEMS microphone fabricated using more traditional MEMS processes.

Some MEMS microphones have an analog audio output. Some have an analog audio output but can provide a digital output using a second semiconductor, essentially an ADC. Akustica MEMS microphones, including the AKU230, are the only MEMS microphones that combine the microphone and the ADC circuitry on one chip, offering a simpler, less expensive solution and one insertion cost rather than two.

In notebooks, the AKU230 eliminates audio signal interference from RF and EM noise sources, and provides a single wire stereo output for microphone arrays. Its small size makes it possible to place two microphones at the top of the notebook screen, an optimum location.

It’s time for design engineers to think outside their conventional boundaries. The Akustica AKU230 is a complete digital microphone in an unbelievably small package. So far, it’s been used primarily in notebooks; but, just for fun, imagine the possibilities for a digital MEMS microphone embedded in a button. More realistically, think about a digital MEMS microphone in a Bluetooth headset, on the wire leading to cell phone earbuds.  There must be hundreds of applications. This microphone is small enough to spawn new applications in new products. All it takes is imagination.

Tony Massimini
Chief of Technology